Mechanism Memo
PBX Protocol Documentation
Technical reference for the air quality market. Covers system architecture, the rebalancing signal, fee mechanics, and protocol economics.
What is PBX?
PBX is the first financial instrument where investing in air quality and positioning for outsized upside are structurally the same action. Each listed city has its own token trading against USDC in an AMM pool. A protocol-controlled rebalancing engine monitors real-time PM2.5 data and trades to enforce a single rule: each city's price should reflect its air quality relative to the others.
Cleaner air → price rises. Dirtier air → price falls.
Air quality is the first market built on this infrastructure. The underlying mechanism — real-world signal, continuous pricing, on-chain settlement — generalises to any measurable, locally relevant data stream. Air quality is where it starts.
Every trade funds cleaner air. Fees flow to The Air Fund, Buyback and Burn, and Protocol Treasury automatically. Fees fund impact as a byproduct of trading activity.
Every traditional vehicle for improving air quality — donations, offsets, sensor purchases — consumes your capital on use. In PBX, your capital circulates. Impact is funded as a byproduct of market activity, not instead of it.
Why Air Quality?
PM2.5 concentrations swing 300% daily across multiple cities driven by rush hours, weather fronts, and seasonal shifts. That volatility, continuously priced on-chain for the first time, is what generates the trading volume that powers the mechanism.
$142M
environmental prediction market volume on Kalshi and Polymarket in January 2026
$10M+
annual consumer sensor spending
70,000+
PurpleAir sensors paid for out of pocket
Multi-billion
weather derivative market volume annually
The demand to trade on environmental data is not theoretical.
Mechanism Math, Not Projections
Every number in this document describes how the protocol's AMM computes prices and distributes fees. Constant-product math is deterministic: x × y = k. Given a reserve state, marginal price is defined. Given a trading volume, fee revenue is defined. These are not forecasts of demand, adoption, or returns.
Where this document shows a price at a given reserve level, that is the math — not a prediction that reserves will reach that level. Where this document shows annual fees at a given trading volume, that is the math — not a prediction that volume will be reached. Inflow, turnover, and adoption are inputs, not outputs.
System Components
City Tokens
One token per listed city, each trading in a constant-product AMM pool against USDC.
PM2.5 Air Quality Input
Real-time data feed from PurpleAir sensor network, aggregated across 50+ sensors per city with outlier filtering.
The Rebalancing Engine
Protocol-controlled trading system that monitors the price-to-air-quality ratio across all cities and executes swaps to keep them aligned.
Fee Layer
Every trade incurs 60 bps, split equally: The Air Fund (20 bps), Buyback & Burn (20 bps), Protocol Treasury (20 bps).
Graduated Buy / LP Mechanism
The capital ingestion system that processes inflows during the bootstrapping phase. Each buy round pushes price up. The protocol then sells back 30% of its token holdings and re-deploys 70% of those proceeds as liquidity into the pool. This deepens the AMM liquidity base with every inflow cycle.
Harvesters
Decentralized execution layer: Air Quality Harvester (pulls PM2.5), Agent Harvester (triggers rebalancing), Fee Harvester (distributes fees).
The Rebalancing Signal
For each city i, the protocol defines two values: Pi (token price) and PM2.5i (concentration). The efficiency score is computed as:
The goal is to keep efficiency scores aligned across all cities. When a city's efficiency is high — meaning it is underpriced for its air quality — the Engine buys it. When efficiency is low (overpriced), the Engine sells.
A city with clean air does not automatically get bid up — it gets bid up if it is underpriced relative to its air quality compared to the other cities. A city with dirty air does not automatically get sold — it gets sold if it is overpriced relative to its air quality versus the others. The rebalancing engine is not rewarding or punishing air quality in isolation. It is closing mispricings. The air quality data is what defines what "correctly priced" means.
Sensitivity and Square-Root Dampening
The exponent −0.5 (square root) was chosen deliberately. It produces graduated responses without over-reacting to extremes:
- ~50% response for routine 4× daily swings
- ~42% dampening for noise in the clean band (5–15 µg/m³)
- ~68% weight drop for extreme events (10→100+ µg/m³)
Air Quality Data
PBX uses PM2.5 concentration directly — not the EPA's composite AQI. Raw concentration gives continuous, granular signal; the composite AQI bins readings into a coarser index that loses information at the margins. PurpleAir data is used by U.S. federal agencies including the EPA and the USFS (U.S. Forest Service). It is integrated into the EPA's AirNow Fire and Smoke Map, one of the official public air quality monitoring tools used across the country.
Data Roadmap
PurpleAir is the launch data source. The architecture is designed to incorporate additional feeds over time — including government reference monitors (EPA AirNow, ECCC, state-level networks) and satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates — to improve coverage, redundancy, and geographic expansion beyond the initial three cities.
Numeric Walkthrough
Two tables illustrate how the rebalancing mechanism works in practice — from a symmetric baseline to a single-city air quality improvement.
Initial State — All Cities Equal
| City | PM2.5 (µg/m³) | Price | Efficiency Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (TOR) | 10 | $1.00 | 0.316 |
| New York (NYC) | 10 | $1.00 | 0.316 |
| Chicago (CHI) | 10 | $1.00 | 0.316 |
Scenario A — Toronto PM2.5 Drops
Toronto PM2.5 drops from 10 to 8 µg/m³. The Engine detects that Toronto is now underpriced relative to its improved air quality and buys TOR until efficiency scores re-align.
| City | PM2.5 (µg/m³) | Equilibrium Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (TOR) | 8 | $1.118 | +11.8% |
| New York (NYC) | 10 | $1.000 | — |
| Chicago (CHI) | 10 | $1.000 | — |
A 20% improvement in PM2.5 translates to an 11.8% price appreciation — the square-root dampening moderates the response proportionally.
Stress Testing
The most demanding scenario is a correlated smoke event where all three cities spike simultaneously — but by different amounts. Under linear formula, relative spread would be ~20%. Under square-root dampening, spread compresses to ~9%.
Correlated Smoke Event
| City | PM2.5 Spike | Linear Spread | Sqrt Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (TOR) | 30 µg/m³ | −18% | −10% |
| New York (NYC) | 50 µg/m³ | −30% | −16% |
| Chicago (CHI) | 20 µg/m³ | −12% | −7% |
| Max spread | — | ~20% | ~9% |
The dampening prevents correlated macro events from producing outsized price divergences that would distort the relative signal across cities.
Price Dynamics
PBX enforces relative efficiency balance. It does not cap absolute price level. If net inflows raise all prices while PM2.5 is stable, all prices rise together — the mechanism only acts when the ratio across cities diverges.
This means early liquidity providers benefit from both macro-level adoption growth (all prices up) and city-level air quality improvement (relative price up). The two return sources are structurally independent.
The Three Streams
The Air Fund
Measurement expansion, exposure reduction, and mitigation initiatives. The feedback loop: more trading → more fees → more funding → better measurement → stronger narrative → more trading.
Buyback & Burn (20 bps)
Programmatic token purchases biased toward cities with better air quality, permanently burning supply. Creates deflationary pressure tied directly to environmental performance.
Protocol Treasury (20 bps)
Enables the team to expand to new cities and improve the rebalancing engine over time.
Progressive Reduction
Fees compress as protocol market cap grows. This creates a competitive schedule that attracts high-volume traders at scale while maintaining impact funding at every tier.
| Volume Tier | Total Fee | Air Fund | Buyback | Treasury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | 60 bp | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| $250M circ cap | 52 bp | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| $1B | 38 bp | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| $10B | 20 bp | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| $100B+ | 10 bp | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Token Distribution
Each city token has a fixed supply of 100,000,000. PBX launches with three cities — Toronto (TOR), New York (NYC), and Chicago (CHI) — for an aggregate protocol supply of 300,000,000 at launch. The schedule below applies identically to every city.
| Allocation | % Per City | Tokens Per City | Vesting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Protocol | |||
| Treasury | 45.50% | 45,500,000 | 48mo daily linear from launch |
| Marketing | 10.25% | 10,250,000 | 48mo daily linear from launch |
| CEX Reserve | 9.00% | 9,000,000 | 48mo daily linear from launch |
| Liquidity & Market Making Reserve | 6.00% | 6,000,000 | 48mo daily linear from launch |
| Team & Stakeholders | |||
| Future Team Reserve | 7.58% | 7,580,000 | 48mo daily linear from launch |
| Pre-Seed | 7.67% | 7,666,666 | 18mo lockup, then 30mo vesting |
| Team | 3.33% | 3,330,000 | 18mo lockup, then 30mo vesting |
| Growth | |||
| Advisors | 4.98% | 4,980,000 | 18mo lockup, then 30mo vesting |
| KOL & Marketing Partners | 3.16% | 3,166,666 | 18mo lockup, then 30mo vesting |
| Ecosystem & Launch Operations | 2.03% | 2,026,668 | Unlocked at launch |
| Initial Liquidity Pool | 0.50% | 500,000 | 1mo initial lock, then 12mo rolling lock |
| Total | 100% | 100,000,000 | Per city token |
Applied identically to TOR, NYC, and CHI. Aggregate protocol supply at launch: 300,000,000 tokens across all three cities.
Why PBX Wins
vs Prediction Markets
Prediction markets expire, forcing capital to exit and re-enter. PBX is continuous — no expiration, no forced unwinding. Capital that enters for one air quality event stays and compounds across the next one.
vs Weather Derivatives
Weather derivative markets require institutional access, ISDA agreements, and minimum contract sizes in the millions. PBX is accessible to anyone with a wallet, and every dollar of volume contributes directly to The Air Fund.
vs Traditional Channels
Traditional environmental vehicles — donations, offsets, sensor purchases — consume capital on use. In PBX, fees fund impact as a function of trading volume while principal remains in the pool as liquidity.
Two Audiences
PBX has two distinct user groups with different motivations — and both are essential to the flywheel.
Utility Adopters
Buy and hold for impact. They set the price floor and provide the baseline liquidity that keeps the AMM stable.
Speculators
Trade for volatility and arbitrage. They bring the volume that funds The Air Fund, drives Buyback and Burn, and tightens price discovery.
The reinforcement loop: utility adopters raise the floor → higher floor means larger price swings on the same PM2.5 move → larger swings attract more speculators → more volume → more contributions to The Air Fund → better air quality → stronger narrative → more utility adopters.
Price as a Function of Reserves
PBX pools use constant-product AMM math: x × y = k, where x and y are the USDC and token reserves. Given any reserve state, the marginal token price is determined. The table shows the token price at various hypothetical reserve states.
| Pool USDC Balance | Token Price |
|---|---|
| $100K | $0.07 |
| $500K | $0.44 |
| $1M | $1.17 |
| $5M | $12.75 |
These are AMM mechanics. The relationship is deterministic: in a constant-product pool, price is a function of the ratio of reserves.
Fee Generation Across Turnover Rates
The table below shows annual fee output as a function of daily turnover at a hypothetical $500M circulating market cap (52 bp fee tier, 18/52 split to The Air Fund). Turnover is daily trading volume as a percentage of market cap.
| Daily Turnover | Daily Volume | Annual Fees | Air Fund Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | $5M | $9.5M | $3.3M |
| 3% | $15M | $28.5M | $9.9M |
| 5% | $25M | $47.5M | $16.4M |
This table shows fee output as a function of turnover rate. It does not forecast actual turnover.
How Fees Are Generated
PBX uses a constant-product AMM (same math as Uniswap) across three city tokens. Each pool starts with $20K USDC and 2M tokens at $0.01. Total supply: 300M tokens, fixed — no inflation. Graduated buy rounds are processed at $25K increments. After each buy, the protocol sells back 30% of tokens, with 70% of sell proceeds re-deposited as liquidity and 30% allocated to treasury.
The Fee Math
Every trade pays a fee, collected as tokens and sold to USDC. At a hypothetical $500M circulating market cap (52 bp tier): 18 bp to The Air Fund, 18 bp to Buyback & Burn, 16 bp to Protocol Treasury. The buyback share buys tokens back and burns them — so the net sell pressure is only 34 bp.
- At 1% daily turnover: $5M daily volume → $26K/day → $9.5M/yr total fees
- At 5% daily turnover: $25M daily volume → $130K/day → $47.5M/yr total fees
Air Fund share at each level = (18/52) × total fees.
Structural Difference
BTC and ETH drain value via inflation that dilutes all holders. PBX drains via trading fees — only traders pay. Holders who don't trade experience zero dilution. The buyback simultaneously creates buy pressure and reduces supply. Fees step down as the protocol scales (60 bp at launch → 10 bp at $100B+ cap), rewarding growth with lower costs.
Every number traces to a cell in the tokenomics model. The simulation tab, vesting tab, and fee schedule are all publicly available for verification.
Mechanism Design Rationale
PBX rests on three observations — each independently validated by existing market data.
People care enough about air quality to spend money on it.
$142M in environmental prediction market volume on Kalshi and Polymarket in January 2026. Multi-billion-dollar weather derivative markets. $10M+ in annual consumer sensor spending. 70,000+ PurpleAir sensors paid for out of pocket. The willingness to pay for air quality signal is demonstrated, not assumed.
A well-designed mechanism converts demand into sustained volume.
300% daily PM2.5 swings produce continuous rebalancing events. The rebalancing engine creates a structural volume floor independent of speculative interest. The volatility that powers the signal is structural — it is not manufactured.
The mechanism scales fee output with trading volume.
Volume is a function of market cap and turnover. As adoption grows, the three output streams — The Air Fund, Buyback & Burn, Protocol Treasury — scale with it. The relationship between volume and fee output is fixed by the fee schedule. The mechanism is designed to produce meaningful impact funding at any scale of adoption above the structural volume floor created by the rebalancing engine.
Legal Disclaimer
This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, token, or financial instrument. All projections, simulations, and scenarios presented herein are hypothetical and are provided for illustrative purposes only. Past performance of comparable instruments is not indicative of future results. Participation in digital asset markets involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. This document does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified professional advisors before making any investment decision. PBX tokens have not been registered under any securities law and are not being offered or sold in any jurisdiction where such offering or sale would be prohibited.